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Is McCain Winning?

A new popularity poll is out with McCain surging ahead of Obama for the first time.

http://news.aol.com/elections/article/mccain-moves-ahead-of-obama-poll-says/163776?icid=100214839x1208881405x1200534753

First, don't believe the hype. We all know that "surges" don't mean squat. McCain has about as much chance winning the election as his wife does being caught shopping at Walmart for dresses. It just ain't gonna happen.

Second, pay more attention to the individual state races. According the Electoral College race projections, nothing has really changed. Obama still has a comfortable lead where it counts, and unless McCain can turn a bunch of states, such as Minnesota, Michigan, etc., he doesn't have a prayer.

Third, people will soon get over the Palin surprise. McCain picked Palin from a position of weakness, and this pick will end up backfiring. Trust me on this. Yes, I'm still concerned that people will think she's cute and will therefore ignore what comes out of her mouth, but in the end, I don't think even her cuteness will save her.

One thing that does worry me: McCain knows how to go on the attack. Obama doesn't play that game. If Obama does happen to lose this election, it will be because McCain wrestled away the "Change" motto and appropriated it for his own campaign. Nevertheless, I still have faith in the Electoral College map. Does McCain have a shot? Sure, but in the end, he's going to end up looking more like Goldwater than Reagan on election night.

Comments

  1. Cute? Maybe. She also seems pretty sharp. We shall see. McCain like Goldwater? It is to be devoutly hoped that he may be.

    BTW,I will not be offended if this is not "approved", since it is your blog to use as you will.

    ReplyDelete

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